The War Within the War
Beyond the grinding, years-long Yemen conflict between the Saudi-led coalition and the Houthi movement, a shadow war is erupting between the coalition's two pillars. This bitter rivalry, pitting nominal allies Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates against each other, now threatens to tear the anti-Houthi coalition apart from within.
The new flashpoint for this clash is Yemen’s vast, oil-rich Hadramaut province, a region critical to the country's economic survival and its future political shape.
In a stunning display of this fractured alliance, recent weeks have seen UAE-backed separatist forces sweep across Hadramaut province, seizing Yemen’s main oil-producing region from Saudi-aligned units.
The response from Riyadh was immediate and unambiguous: the deployment of armored columns across the border, a clear signal that while Riyadh may have been outmaneuvered on the ground, it will not be muscled out of the geopolitical equation.
This report will dissect this fast-moving offensive, analyze the immense strategic stakes in Hadramaut, expose the growing rift between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, and explore the profound implications this proxy struggle has for the future of Yemen.
Anatomy of a Takeover:
The STC's "Operation Promising Future"
To understand the current crisis, it is essential to analyze the specific military actions in early December that fundamentally shifted the balance of power in eastern Yemen. Saudi Arabia's alarm was triggered by a blitzkrieg offensive launched by the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a potent separatist group armed and trained by the United Arab Emirates. This operation is now commonly referred to as the 2025 Hadramaut offensive.
Between 2–3 December, the STC's military wing, known as the "Southern Armed Forces," commenced a campaign dubbed "Operation Promising Future." The offensive targeted positions held by Yemen's internationally recognised government, local tribal militias, and army units of the 1st Military Region. In a remarkably swift advance, STC fighters seized the key towns of Seiyun and Tarim, overrunning military bases and checkpoints with little effective opposition.
According to diplomatic and local sources, the Saudi-backed tribal and government formations offered only "light" resistance before executing a hurried retreat. This allowed the UAE-backed separatists to gain control of large stretches of the resource-rich Wadi Hadramaut and its major military sites. The successful military offensive provided the STC with a prize of immense strategic value, setting the stage for a direct confrontation over Yemen's economic future.
Hadramaut: The Strategic Prize
Control over Hadramaut is not merely about territory; it is about controlling Yemen's economic lifeline and its geopolitical leverage. As Yemen’s largest governorate, covering approximately one-third of the country, its significance is hard to overstate. The province holds the key to the nation's wealth and its connections to the wider world.
Its value is twofold. Geographically, it serves as a "crucial land bridge," connecting directly to Saudi Arabia’s south and providing access to key ports on the Arabian Sea. Economically, Hadramaut contains the vast majority of Yemen’s oil reserves, concentrated in the Masila basin and the PetroMasila fields. Before the latest turmoil, this region was responsible for nearly all of the country's crude output, estimated at around 100,000 barrels per day.
This strategic value had long been a source of tension. In recent years, the Saudi-backed Hadramaut Tribal Alliance and their Hadramaut Protection Forces were deployed to defend these "national resources." This move was viewed with deep suspicion by the STC, which accused its rivals of corruption and obstructing southern aspirations. The STC's offensive was, therefore, a calculated move to seize these strategic assets and assert its dominance over the south's future.
The Southern Transitional Council: Ally and Rival
The Southern Transitional Council is a complex and powerful actor whose recent actions can only be understood through the lens of its separatist goals, its formidable external backing, and its ambiguous role within the anti-Houthi coalition. Formed in 2017, the STC emerged from a long-standing movement to restore the former state of South Yemen, and its leadership openly advocates for either full independence or a high degree of autonomy.
The STC became the dominant military force across southern Yemen thanks directly to extensive Emirati funding, training, and equipment. Its aligned military formations—including the battle-hardened Giants Brigades, Hadhrami Elite Forces, and Shabwah Defence Forces—constitute a powerful and cohesive fighting force. During the Hadramaut offensive, an estimated 10,000 fighters were deployed, easily overwhelming the scattered government units and extending STC control deep into the oil-rich interior and into neighbouring Mahrah on the Omani border.
While nominally a partner in the Saudi-sponsored coalition against the Houthis, the STC in practice operates with a high degree of independence. It consistently prioritizes its southern agenda, often in close coordination with its patrons in Abu Dhabi. This dual role as both ally and rival presents a direct and growing strategic challenge to Saudi Arabia’s core interests in Yemen.
A Widening Gulf Rift: Riyadh's Alarmed Response
The STC's lightning takeover of Hadramaut is far more than a local Yemeni power shift. It represents a major strategic setback for Saudi Arabia, and Riyadh’s carefully constructed policy in eastern Yemen has been shattered overnight. The sight of Saudi-backed forces being unceremoniously pushed aside in a critical border region containing Yemen's primary oil wealth is the most public manifestation yet of the widening Saudi-UAE rivalry.
Some commentators link Abu Dhabi’s green light for the offensive to wider regional tensions, suggesting the Hadramaut front has become a test of strength between the two Gulf partners. Riyadh’s response has been swift and muscular, signaling deep alarm.
It has dispatched armored columns—including tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and troop carriers—across the Al-Wadi’ah and other crossings to reinforce loyalist positions and establish new strongpoints.
Concurrently, a Saudi delegation in Hadramaut is under intense pressure to "salvage something from the chaos" through urgent negotiations, even as the balance of power on the ground has tilted decisively toward the STC.
Local Powers Caught in the Middle
The STC's advance has forced Hadramaut's local power brokers—tribal sheikhs and military commanders alike—into an impossible position. The various Saudi-aligned tribal and military structures that once held sway in the province, including the Hadramaut Protection Forces, units of the 1st Military Region, border guard units, and other tribal militias, have been displaced or marginalized, their positions overrun or abandoned.
These local leaders, who had long navigated a careful balancing act between Emirati and Saudi patronage, now face a stark and unavoidable choice:
• Accommodate the STC: Accept the new separatist authority on the ground and attempt to negotiate for a degree of local autonomy and a share of the region's resource revenue.
• Realign with Saudi Arabia: Double down on their alliance with Riyadh and risk being targeted or permanently marginalized should the STC succeed in consolidating its control.
This dilemma is creating a patchwork of outcomes, with some local leaders striking deals with the STC while others appeal directly to Riyadh for protection, further fragmenting the local political landscape.
Saudi Arabia's Strategic Calculus:
The Goals Behind the Armor
Saudi Arabia's deployment of armored forces is a calculated, multi-pronged strategy aimed at salvaging influence and securing core national interests rather than provoking a direct confrontation. Riyadh's objectives appear to be threefold, each designed to mitigate the damage from the STC's advance and preserve Saudi leverage over Yemen's future.
1. Secure the Frontier Riyadh’s primary concern is ensuring the long Saudi-Yemeni frontier remains under the control of loyal forces. After years of enduring Houthi drone and missile attacks launched from Yemeni territory, securing this border is a non-negotiable security imperative. Control over key crossings also allows Saudi Arabia to shape the flow of trade and humanitarian aid into the country.
2. Control the Oil Flow By positioning forces near the key highways and approaches to the Masila basin, Saudi Arabia is creating leverage. This military presence sends a clear message that any future authority in Hadramaut will have to negotiate with Riyadh over oil exports and revenue-sharing arrangements, regardless of who controls the fields themselves.
3. Retain Negotiating Leverage In the complex world of Yemeni peace negotiations, the fundamental principle is that territorial control equals negotiating power. Riyadh cannot afford a scenario where the UAE and the STC become the sole arbiters of southern Yemen's future. By reinforcing its military footprint, Saudi Arabia is ensuring it retains a seat at the table and a say in the final outcome.
Conclusion: The Spectre of a Divided Yemen
The STC's takeover of Hadramaut has done more than just redraw the map of local control; it has dangerously fractured the anti-Houthi coalition from within, exposing a deep and consequential strategic rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This "war within a war" threatens to overshadow the primary conflict and push Yemen toward permanent fragmentation.
If the STC consolidates its control over all the territories of the former South Yemen—Aden, Lahj, Dhale, Abyan, Shabwah, Socotra, Hadramaut and Mahrah—it will be in a commanding position to demand independence. For Riyadh, this presents a nightmare scenario: a Houthi-dominated north aligned with Iran, and an Emirati-backed southern entity controlling Yemen’s strategic coasts, vital oil resources, and the entire coastline up to the Omani border.
This outcome would not only shatter Saudi Arabia's long-standing goal of a unified, friendly Yemeni state but would also fundamentally reshape the political and security landscape of the Arabian Peninsula. The pursuit of competing agendas by regional powers now risks creating a permanently divided Yemen, a consequence that would prolong instability for years to come.
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