How the Russia-Ukraine War Will Change Europe Forever?

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is deeply rooted in centuries of history, identity, and power dynamics. These interwoven factors have fundamentally shaped the ongoing confrontation, going far beyond recent events.

Here's how historical identity and power dynamics contributed to the conflict:

Ukraine's Emerging Sovereign Identity vs. Russian Historical Claims:

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine declared independence, which was seen as a "rebirth of a sovereign identity" for the nation, not just a political shift.

This independence led to a delicate balancing act for Ukraine, with aspirations to align with the European Union and NATO on one side.

On the other side was Russia, a powerful and watchful neighbor that, according to the sources, "never truly saw Ukraine as separate". Vladimir Putin has explicitly stated that he considers Ukraine part of Russia’s “historical space,” a mindset that explains much of Russia's subsequent actions.

The Ukrainian people, particularly in the western parts of the country, actively sought democratic reforms and global integration, reflecting their desire for a distinct identity and direction away from Moscow.

Assertion of Ukrainian Identity and Resistance to Russian Influence:

The Orange Revolution in 2004 was a pivotal moment where Ukrainians protested rigged presidential elections, demanding a fair vote. Their success, which led to a Western-leaning candidate winning, demonstrated Ukraine's determination to stand up "not just for democracy, but for direction," signaling a potential break from Moscow's orbit that Russia clearly noticed.

Further solidifying this shift, the Euromaidan protests in 2014 erupted when a pro-Russian Ukrainian president backed out of an EU deal, leading to his ouster and the installation of a new, pro-Western government. This was a clear assertion of Ukraine's desired identity and alignment.

Russia's Exercise of Power to Maintain Control and Influence:

In response to Ukraine's westward leanings, particularly after the Euromaidan revolution in 2014, Russia "struck," occupying and annexing Crimea following a disputed referendum, an act that Putin called “historic justice” despite international condemnation. This was a direct exercise of power to reassert control over what Russia viewed as its "historical space".

Simultaneously, Russia backed pro-Russian separatists in Donbas, Ukraine's eastern industrial region, leading to the declaration of two "republics" and the prolonged Donbas War. This intervention was another significant power play to destabilize Ukraine and maintain influence over its territory.

From Russia's perspective, Ukraine deepening its ties with the West, including NATO training and U.S. military aid between 2019 and 2021, was not merely Ukraine turning away, but rather NATO "expanding east, right up to its borders". This perception, whether rational or not, fueled Putin's belief that Ukraine was "slipping away — forever," leading to the full-scale invasion in 2022.

The Conflict as a Battle for History and Narrative:

The hosts highlight that the conflict is not just about land but about "history and memory". Ukraine’s fight is portrayed as being "as much about who they are as it is about territory".

Conversely, Russia’s invasion is framed as an "attempt to rewrite borders and rewrite narratives," aiming to deny and obliterate Ukraine's own understanding of its history and identity.

In essence, the conflict "didn't begin with tanks rolling across the border" but "brewed" and "built" over decades through clashing visions of identity and a fierce power struggle over Ukraine's geopolitical orientation.