The Coming War: US Attacks Iran, Pakistan's Betrayal

Pakistan's alleged betrayal of Iran and Afghanistan is presented in the sources as a reflection of its foreign policy and has significant implications for its domestic stability and international standing.

Alleged Betrayal and Foreign Policy:

Deception of Afghanistan and Iran:

The sources assert that Pakistan has betrayed both Afghanistan (specifically the Afghan Taliban) and Iran,leading to the suffering of their people. The speaker vehemently states that Pakistan "deceived them [Afghans] and also betrayed these [Iranians]" and is responsible for their children dying.

Collaboration with CIA

This alleged betrayal is linked to a broader claim that Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Pakistan are fundamentally working for the CIA.

The Nobel Peace Prize Incident:

Pakistan officially recommended Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, claiming that his leadership had prevented a war between India and Pakistan. This recommendation was allegedly influenced by Jack Whitkoff, the son of Donald Trump's golf buddy and Middle East envoy, who suggested it to Pakistan's Army Chief, Asim Munir, in exchange for "a few billion dollars".

However,the day after Pakistan officially recommended Trump, the US launched attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities in Fordow and Isfahan Following these attacks, Pakistan immediately issued a letter condemning the US action. This swift reversal is highlighted as demonstrating a profound lack of "character" or "moral compass" in Pakistan's foreign policy.

Support for Anti-Regime Groups in Iran:

The sources allege that Pakistan, Turkey, and Azerbaijan are collaborating against Iran. Specifically, Pakistan (through its ISI) is accused of supplying NATO weapons to various anti-regime groups within Iran, including Azari groups, Kurds, and Sunni Baloch groups in Sistan, who are now publicly opposing the Iranian regime. This entire scenario is described as a "game" that Iranian intelligence is fully aware of.

Transactional and Opportunistic Approach:

The speaker questions Pakistan's sincerity towards Iran, noting that while Pakistan constantly refers to Iran as a "brotherly Islamic country," its actions contradict these statements. This is seen as a continuation of a historical pattern, exemplified by former President Musharraf, who is claimed to have "sold out" Pakistan for money. The Pakistan Army and ISI are also described as "drug lords" in the region, generating funds for their nuclear program through drug trafficking.

Kashmir and Regional Dynamics:

Historically, Iran supported the Mujahideen in Kashmir, but later shifted its stance when the Sunni groups began targeting Shias. This led to negotiations between Pakistan's ISI and Iran's IRGC to protect Shias in Pakistan, illustrating a pragmatic, self-interested approach to foreign policy.

Domestic Stability and National Character:

Public Shame and Condemnation:

The speaker expresses deep disgust, suggesting that Pakistanis should feel enough shame to "drown in a handful of water".

Internal Dissension:

Maulana Fazlur Rahman, a prominent figure, publicly criticized the recommendation of Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, arguing it was shameful to honor someone with "hands stained with the blood of Afghan, Iraqi, and Iranian Muslims". Mushahid Hussain Syed, depicted as a "mouthpiece" and "puppet" of the Pakistani deep state and ISI, initially supported the Trump recommendation but then reversed his position after the Iran attacks.

"Deep State" Control:

The sources suggest that the Pakistan Army Chief, Asim Munir, exercised significant control over foreign policy decisions, even overriding the civilian government in the Nobel Peace Prize recommendation. The presence of Mohsin Naqvi (described as Asim Munir's "tout") on official trips, while elected civilian leaders were absent, underscores the military's pervasive influence.

"Dabbu" as National Archetype:

Fawad Chaudhry, referred to as "Dabbu," is presented as the"real representative" of Pakistan's character, due to his history of political opportunism and betraying allies for personal gain. This characterization is extended to Pakistan's national character and diplomatic approach, implying a lack of consistent principles.

Eroding International Reputation:

The sources claim that Arab nations, Afghans, and Iranians now widely perceive Pakistan as "number one deceivers, double-dealers, and traitors". This negative perception from "brotherly Islamic nations" severely damages Pakistan's diplomatic standing.

Propaganda and False Narratives:

It is alleged that pro-Iran and anti-India social media accounts, which appear to be from Iran, are actually operated by Pakistan's ISPR from Karachi to spread propaganda.

In summary, Pakistan's alleged betrayal of Iran and Afghanistan is portrayed as a manifestation of a foreign policy that is transactional, lacks a consistent moral compass, and is heavily influenced by its powerful "deep state". This behavior not only creates tension and distrust with regional neighbors but also sparks internal criticism and contributes to a negative international image, impacting Pakistan's overall domestic stability and credibility.

The US military actions in Iran, particularly the attacks on nuclear facilities in Fordow and Isfahan/Natanz, are part of a broader strategy aimed at collapsing the current Iranian regime and significantly reshaping regional power dynamics.

Here are the strategic implications of these actions for regional power dynamics:

Regime Change in Iran:

The primary objective of the US is to topple the Ayatollah Khamenei's or the Mullah regime in Iran. The sources indicate that this conflict is expected to continue until the regime falls.

Donald Trump's administration had issued six demands to Iran, which included stopping uranium enrichment, abandoning any nuclear bomb ambitions, halting financial and material support for proxies like the Houthis, Hezbollah, and Iraqi militias, and abandoning the Popular Mobilization Force of Iraq.

The US believes that by weakening the regime's leadership and infrastructure through airstrikes, internal resistance within Iran will lead to its collapse.

Potential Fragmentation of Iran

Similar to what happened in Iraq, the sources suggest that Iran might be divided into multiple territories, with different areas potentially controlled by various parties.

A "puppet regime" might be installed, which could lead to ongoing conflict with groups like the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and ethnic/religious groups such as the Sunni Baloch, Azeri, and Kurds, leading to continued instability, bombings, and conflict within the country.

Role of Regional Allies/Adversaries:

Pakistan, Turkey, and Azerbaijan are described as working with the CIA to facilitate regime change in Iran. Pakistan is specifically accused of a "brazen betrayal" by officially recommending Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize just before the US attacks on Iran, only to condemn the attacks the very next day.

Pakistan, with support from Turkey and Azerbaijan, is also alleged to besupplying NATO weapons to anti-regime groups like the Azeri, Kurd, and Sistan Sunni Baloch groups within Iran, leveraging their ground networks. These three nations are anticipated to face consequences for their actions, with Pakistan expected to pay the highest price.

The Arab World, including Saudi Arabia and UAE, is predicted to remain silent if a war against Iran occurs, as they consider Iran a long-standing "nuisance maker" and had previously supported Saddam Hussein during the Iraq-Iran War.

A significant "blowback" is expected from the global Shiite population, due to their spiritual connection to Iran. However, the sources suggest that this blowback will not be sufficient to effectively resist the US actions.

Implications for Iraq:

A key US demand is for Iran to abandon its support for the Popular Mobilization Force (PMF) in Iraq, a powerful Shia armed group largely loyal to Ayatollah Khamenei rather than the Iraqi government. This could further destabilize or redefine the power structure within Iraq, potentially leaving a "lawless" vacuum or changing allegiances.

India's Position:

Despite perceptions of Iran being a strong ally, the sources highlight that Iran isnot necessarily a "well-wisher" of India. The IRGC was accused of a terrorist bomb blast in New Delhi in 2012, which injured two Indians and an Israeli diplomat's wife.

Furthermore, Iran initially supported "mujahideen" in Kashmir, only ceasing support when these groups began targeting Shias within Kashmir.

India is advised not to worry about its energy security, as it is a paying customer for oil and will continue to source it regardless of who is in power in Iran, similar to its continued trade with Iraq after Saddam Hussein's fall and Afghanistan under the Taliban.

Israel's Security:

The US military actions directly address Israeli security concerns by targeting Iran's nuclear program and its support for groups hostile to Israel, such as Hamas and Hezbollah.

Nature of the Conflict:

The anticipated conflict is described as the "mother of all wars," involving widespread bloodshed, distinct from previous US military interventions in Iraq, Syria, or Libya.

The deployment of B-2 bombers to Diego Garcia, capable of carrying GBU-57 "bunker buster" bombs, signifies preparations for large-scale destruction of Iran's deeply buried nuclear and missile facilities, which are reported to be 300 feet underground.

The B-2 bombers have a range of 11,000 km, allowing them to travel 5000 km from Diego Garcia to Iran, drop bombs, and return without refueling. Overall, the US actions aim to significantly alter the geopolitical landscape of West Asia by neutralizing a perceived threat from Iran's nuclear program and its regional influence, even if it leads to prolonged instability and conflict within Iran itself.

The conflict in Iran, including the potential for a regime change, has several implications for global energy security and international relations, according to the sources:

Impact on Global Energy Security

The sources indicate that India, at least, should not be concerned about its energy security even if there is a regime change in Iran. The speaker argues that oil supplies will continue regardless of who is in power in Iran, just as Iraq continued to supply oil even after the fall of Saddam Hussein.

Nations like India, which pay for their oil and services, are unlikely to face issues, unlike "free-loaders" such as Pakistan.

Impact on International Relations

The sources detail various aspects of the conflict's impact on international relations:

US Actions and Demands:

The United States, under Donald Trump, gave Iran a 90-day warning (later 60 days) to comply with six demands, threatening military action if they were not met.

These demands included Iran completely shutting down all uranium enrichment plants (like those in Fordow and Natanz) and abandoning any desire for nuclear bombs.

The US also demanded that Iran cease all support for proxy groups in Yemen, the Middle East, and West Asia, including Houthis, Hezbollah, and the Popular Mobilization Force of Iraq.

The US deployed six B2 bombers, capable of carrying GBU-57 bunker-buster bombs, to its airbase in Diego Garcia, preparing for potential strikes on Iran's deeply buried nuclear facilities. The GBU-57 bomb can penetrate up to 200 feet underground, and multiple bombs can be used for deeper targets. This deployment suggests alarge-scale bombing campaign aimed at destroying Iran's missile facilities and nuclear enrichment plants.

The speaker believes that the US is determined to weaken the Iranian regime to enable internal forces to bring about its collapse, as the current regime faces significant internal resistance.

Pakistan's Perceived Betrayal and Shifting Stances:

Pakistan officially recommended Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, allegedly at the suggestion of Jack Witkoff (son of Trump's golf buddy, Steve Witkoff), in exchange for an estimated "one or two billion dollars".

The day after Pakistan officially recommended Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, the US attacked Iran's nuclear facilities. The very next day, Pakistan officially condemned the US attacks.

This rapid shift in stance from recommending a Nobel Peace Prize to condemning the actions of the same individual/country highlights a lack of "character" or "moral compass" within Pakistan's state.

Pakistani deep state mouthpieces, like Mushahid Hussain Syed, initially welcomed the Nobel recommendation but later reversed their positions after the Iran attacks.

The speaker accuses Pakistan of betraying both the Afghan Taliban and Iran, leading to the deaths of their children, and asserts that Pakistan, Turkey, and Azerbaijan are essentially working for the CIA

The speaker also alleges that many anti-India and pro-Pakistan social media handles claiming to be from Iran are actually operated from Karachi by Pakistan's Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR).

Turkey and Azerbaijan's Alleged Role:

Turkey and Azerbaijan are also accused of collaborating with Pakistan for the CIA

The speaker provides an example of Turkey's perceived hypocrisy, noting that Israeli citizens receive visa-free entry for 90 days, while Palestinians need to pay fees and provide documents for a visa to Turkey, despite Turkey's "pro-Palestinian" rhetoric.

Iran's Internal Situation and Regional Fragmentation:

The sources predict that the Iranian regime will fall, and Iran will likelyfragment into two or three different pieces, with various groups (Kurdish, Azeri, Sunni Baloch groups in Sistan-Balochistan) taking control of different areas.

This fragmentation could lead to ongoing internal conflict with various groups attacking the new "puppet regime". The speaker notes that NATO weapons are appearing among these groups, supplied by Pakistan and aided by Turkey and Azerbaijan.

The Iranian leadership has built thousands of kilometers of tunnels for survival, anticipating conflict for the last 15-20 years.

Arab World and Global Shi'ite Reaction:

The Arab world, particularly the Sunni countries, is unlikely to support Iran in any conflict due to Iran's historical role as a "nuisance maker" in the region, as evidenced by their support for Saddam Hussein during the Iraq-Iran war.

However,"blowback" is expected from the large global Shi'ite population(Indian, Pakistani, Afghan, European, North American) who consider Iran their only spiritual homeland.

Iran's Past Actions in India:

The sources highlight that Iran is ;and has been involved in terrorism in India.

Specifically, the 2012 bomb blast in New Delhi, which injured an Israeli diplomat's wife (Naor Malchi, wife of the Israeli defense attaché in India) and two Indians, was allegedly orchestrated by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

An Indian journalist, Syed Mohammad Ahmed Kazmi, who was the chief editor of an Urdu newspaper, was charge-sheeted in the case for allegedly being complicit and receiving foreign funds.

The sources also claim that Iran initially supported mujahideen and terrorism in Kashmir but later stopped when Sunni elements began targeting Shias, leading to negotiations between Iran's IRGC and Pakistan's ISI.

Conclusion:

In conclusion, the sources predict an unavoidable and intense conflictthat will lead to the downfall and potential fragmentation of the Iranian regime. This conflict is expected to have significant regional consequences, with Pakistan, Turkey, and Azerbaijan allegedly playing a complicit role for the US, while Iran's actions in India demonstrate its less-than-friendly stance. While energy security may not be a long-term issue for major buyers like India, the humanitarian cost and regional instability are expected to be substantial.