The Origins of Putin's War: A 25-Year Conspiracy Explained

The Origins of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The origins of the Russia-Ukraine conflict are deeply rooted in historical and political factors that span centuries, not just starting in 2022 or even 2014. These factors involve clashing visions, fears, and issues of identity and power.

The Historical and Political Factors

The Soviet Legacy and Ukrainian Independence (1991):

The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 led to the independence of fifteen republics, including Ukraine.

For Ukraine, this independence was not only political but also a psychological rebirth of a sovereign identity.

Ukraine then faced a challenging balancing act: aspiring to join the European Union and aligning with NATO, while navigating its relationship with a powerful neighbor, Russia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin explicitly views Ukraine as part of Russia's "historical space," indicating a perspective that Ukraine is not truly separate.

However, Ukraine's people, particularly in the western parts of the country, were increasingly pulled towards democratic reforms and global integration.

The Orange Revolution (2004):

This was a pivotal moment in 2004 when presidential elections were rigged in favor of the pro-Russian candidate, Viktor Yanukovych.

Ukrainians protested by flooding the streets, leading to a court-ordered revote where the Western-leaning candidate, Viktor Yushchenko, emerged victorious.

This event signified Ukraine's stand for democracy and a clear direction away from Moscow's orbit, which Russia observed keenly.

The Euromaidan Revolution, Crimea Annexation, and Donbas War (2014):

In 2014, another political crisis erupted when Viktor Yanukovych, who had made a comeback in 2010, backed out of an EU deal.

Massive protests, known as Euromaidan, escalated into a revolution, leading to Yanukovych's flight and the establishment of a new, pro-Western government.

In response, Russian forces occupied Crimea almost overnight, conducting a referendum and annexing the peninsula, an act that the international community deemed illegal, though Putin called it "historic justice".

Simultaneously, unrest spread to Donbas, Ukraine's industrial east, where pro-Russian separatists, backed by Moscow, declared two "republics"—Donetsk and Luhansk.

This marked the beginning of the Donbas War, a prolonged and deadly conflict that resulted in tens of thousands killed and millions displaced, largely flying "under the radar" until 2022.

NATO, Western Ties, and Russian "Red Lines" (2019-2021):

Between 2019 and 2021, Ukraine deepened its connections with Western powers.

NATO provided training to Ukrainian forces, and the U.S. sent military aid, signifying support and diplomatic ties.

From Russia's perspective, this was not merely Ukraine turning away but represented NATO expanding eastward, directly approaching Russia's borders.

This perception, whether rational or not, fueled President Putin's increasing belief that Ukraine was slipping away permanently.

The war in Ukraine did not erupt suddenly but "brewed" and "built" over decades, driven by ideas, fears, and long-standing clashing visions regarding Ukraine's identity, history, and future direction. The conflict is seen not just as a fight over land, but also over history, memory, and Ukraine's very identity.

Ukraine's Pursuit of Western Alignment and Russia's Reactions

Ukraine's pursuit of Western alignment significantly provoked Russia's actions, as Russia perceived these moves as a direct challenge to its historical influence and security interests.

Post-Soviet Independence and Aspirations:

After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine declared independence and began to assert a sovereign identity.

This independence came with aspirations to join the European Union and align with NATO.

This desire for global integration and democratic reforms was particularly strong among the people in the western parts of Ukraine. Russia, however, maintained a mindset that Ukraine was part of its "historical space" and never truly viewed it as separate.

Euromaidan and the Annexation of Crimea/Donbas War (2014):

Another political crisis emerged in 2014 when President Yanukovych, who had returned to power in 2010, backed out of an EU deal, leading to massive protests known as Euromaidan. When these protests led to a revolution and a new, pro-Western government taking over, Russia "struck".

Almost overnight, Russian forces occupied and subsequently annexed Crimea following a so-called referendum, which Putin declared "historic justice" despite international condemnation.

Simultaneously, unrest erupted in Donbas, Ukraine’s industrial east, where pro-Russian separatists, backed by Moscow, declared two "republics", initiating the years-long and deadly Donbas War.

Deepening Ties with the West and NATO Expansion (2019-2021):

Between 2019 and 2021, Ukraine further deepened its ties with Western nations, including NATO training Ukrainian forces and the U.S. sending military aid.

From Russia’s perspective, this was not simply Ukraine turning away, but rather NATO "expanding east, right up to its borders". This development, whether rationally feared or not, "fed Putin’s growing sense that Ukraine was slipping away — forever" and signaled "something Moscow feared".

Key Turning Points Leading Up to the 2022 Invasion

The sources indicate several key turning points that led up to the full-scale 2022 invasion of Ukraine:

The Collapse of the Soviet Union (1991):

The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and Ukraine's declaration of independence.

This event marked Ukraine's "rebirth of a sovereign identity" and initiated a "tough balancing act" between its aspirations for joining the European Union and NATO, and the watchful presence of Russia. Russia, under Vladimir Putin, views Ukraine as part of its "historical space".

The Orange Revolution (2004):

This was a "pivotal moment" when Ukrainians protested rigged presidential elections favoring the pro-Russian candidate, Viktor Yanukovych.

The protests led to a revote and the victory of Viktor Yushchenko, a Western-leaning candidate. This event was seen as Ukraine "standing up — not just for democracy, but for direction," and Russia took notice.

It was the "first major signal that Ukraine might break away from Moscow’s orbit for good".

The Events of 2014:

Euromaidan Revolution:

In 2014, massive protests erupted after Viktor Yanukovych, who had made a comeback in 2010, backed out of an EU deal.

These protests became a revolution, leading to Yanukovych fleeing and a new, pro-Western government taking over.

Annexation of Crimea:

Immediately after the Euromaidan Revolution, Russian forces occupied Crimea, followed by a "so-called referendum," and Russia annexed the peninsula.

The international community deemed this illegal, though Putin called it "historic justice".

Donbas War:

Concurrently, unrest escalated in Donbas, Ukraine’s industrial east, where "pro-Russian separatists, backed by Moscow," declared two "republics" (Donetsk and Luhansk).

This marked the beginning of the "grinding, deadly conflict" known as the Donbas War, which raged for years, causing tens of thousands of deaths and millions displaced.

Ukraine's Deepening Ties with the West (2019-2021):

During this period, Ukraine intensified its connections with Western powers. NATO trained Ukrainian forces, and the U.S. provided military aid, including diplomacy, support, and weapons.

From Russia's perspective, this was perceived as not just Ukraine turning away, but NATO expanding eastward, right up to its borders. This "fed Putin’s growing sense that Ukraine was slipping away — forever".

Conclusion

These turning points highlight how the conflict "didn’t begin with tanks rolling across the border" in 2022, but rather "with ideas, fears, and decades of clashing visions".