How might these changes impact the region?
Emergence of New States and Border Adjustments:
Pakistan's Fragmentation:
The discussion highlights the potential "Somaliaization" of Pakistan, a term preferred over "Balkanization" or "Lebanonization" because the Pakistani Army still holds power, unlike the collapse seen in Yugoslavia or the internal demographic shifts in Lebanon.
Afghanistan's Expansion:
Kurdistan's Autonomy:
Both maps suggest the creation of a Kurdistan, with existing autonomous Kurdish areas in Iraq linking up and potential expansion into Kurdish areas of Iran and Turkey.
Reshaping Iraq and Syria:
A Shia Iraqi state with limited control over its Sunni desert areas is envisioned, and efforts by Persia (Iran) to exert influence are noted. Syria's coastline is largely ceded to "Greater Lebanon" or Israel, leaving Syria with minimal access to the sea.
Israel's Expansion and the Palestinian Question:
The 1998 map by Colonel Ralph Peters notably showed no Palestine, with Israel's borders expanding to the 1967 lines and potentially gaining the complete Mediterranean coast of Syria. Future plans for a canal and port near Gaza suggest Israel might need to take over parts of the Sinai desert, bringing it closer to the Suez Canal. The "two-state theory" is critiqued for not identifying where a Palestinian state would be located, with potential options in North or South Sinai mentioned.
Changes to Saudi Arabia and Yemen:
Saudi Arabia is shown potentially losing coastal areas to a Shia Arab state along the Persian Gulf, and Yemen is significantly reduced in size. The idea of Mecca and Medina becoming independent international cities, potentially aligned with Saudi Arabia's "Vision 2030," is also floated.
Shifting Power Dynamics and Alliances:
US Dominance (Project for the New American Century - PNAC):
The core objective of PNAC, established after the Soviet Union's collapse, is to ensure America dominates the globe in the 21st century. The US is described as the "new player" in Pakistan, actively driving political turmoil and using Afghanistan (TTP and BALA) as a "sword" to make Pakistan pay for its past support of the Taliban and Al-Qaeda. The US presence in Pasni, near Gwadar, is noted for its intelligence gathering capabilities.
Pakistan's Weakening and Allegiance Shift:
Pakistan is portrayed as economically weak, facing issues like Microsoft closing its operations due to lack of suitable personnel and internet issues, and concerns about its nuclear assets being controlled by American generals. Its alliance with China, particularly the CPEC, is considered "dead and buried," as Pakistan has "shifted his bed to the US". This shift makes Pakistan an "AirBnB" or "eBay" property, available to the highest bidder.
China's Vulnerabilities:
China is depicted as being "worried" about Uyghur militants returning to Xinjiang via the Wakhan Corridor, leading it to seek influence in Gilgit-Baltistan. The cancellation of China's oil exploration contract in Afghanistan further highlights its diminishing influence there. Its strategic goal in Gilgit-Baltistan is to block the connection between China and Pakistan.
India's Strategic Gains:
India is urged to prioritize its national security interests in these redrawings. Taking over Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) is considered strategically vital for India, as it would block the China-Pakistan connection, open a land corridor to Central Asia, and potentially resolve the Siachen issue. The discussion also includes the possibility of India taking over portions of Sind and three provinces from Bangladesh (like Chittagong Hill Tracts), which would enhance India's security, particularly for the Siliguri Corridor and the Northeast.
Iran's Position:
Iran is expected to lose territory to Azerbaijan and Kurdistan. Its influence in Iraq is met with objection from some Iraqis who historically resent Persian control.
Russia's Re-engagement:
Russia's recognition of the Taliban is seen as a strategic move to officially maintain presence and monitor US activities in Afghanistan, particularly concerning Central Asia.
Increased Conflict Potential:
The sources acknowledge that these proposed border changes, especially those breaking from old World War-era boundaries, are likely to involve "a lot of bloodshed".
The ongoing geopolitical changes in the region are influenced by the primary motivations and strategies of several global and regional powers, as detailed in the sources:
United States of America (USA)
The USA is identified as a new and active player in the region.
Motivations:
To dominate the globe in the 21st century as part of "Project of the New American Century" (PNAC), which was renamed from "Pax Americana" after the Soviet Union's collapse in 1992. This project includes a pillar focused on global economic dominance (geo-economics), with economists like Raghuram Rajan being foundational members.
To make Pakistan "pay" for its past actions of supporting the Taliban and Al-Qaeda against Americans in Afghanistan.
To control the region and dictate future borders and nations for its own security interests and continued global presence.
Redrawing borders and creating new countries:
This is evident in maps from figures like Ralph Peters (published 2006, made 1998) and Bernard Lewis, which show significant territorial changes, losses, and gains for various countries, and the creation of new states like Kurdistan, Balochistan, and a Shia Iraq.
Leveraging internal conflicts:
The US is seen as the "person holding the sword" (Afghanistan as the sword) in the region, using groups like the TTP (Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan) and BLA (Balochistan Liberation Army) against Pakistan.
Economic and military pressure on Pakistan:
This includes "defanging" Pakistan's nuclear assets, potentially through US control. Microsoft's departure from Pakistan is cited as a sign of economic weakness. There's also mention of Pakistan potentially being blacklisted or grey-listed due to dual-technology band violations and funding traces to the Pulwama incident. The US is even suggested to be transferring money to Pakistani officials' US accounts in exchange for silence or cooperation regarding territorial losses.
Strategic military presence:
The US has 14,000 Americans in Afghanistan. It has deployed F-16s with AESA radars in Pasni, right next to Gwadar, gathering intelligence.
Controlling key corridors and resources:
The US aims to secure its presence and influence through its proposed new nations and borders.
It is also working to establish a canal and a large port in Gaza, requiring Israeli control over parts of Sinai for security. The US is indicated to have arm-twisted Egypt into accepting Palestinian refugees in North Sinai.
China
China is a significant player, particularly concerned about its strategic projects and internal security.
Motivations:
To dominate Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) and extend its influence there, as GB is strategically important to China.
To control the Wakhan Corridor to prevent Uighur militants from entering Xinjiang, a region where China has placed Uighurs in "education camps" (referred to as concentration camps) due to concerns about atrocities and organ harvesting.
To protect its China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) investments, which are considered "the jewel in the crown" but are now seen as "dead and buried".
Military presence in GB:
China has a presence in Gilgit-Baltistan.
Border control and funding: China has built a post near the Wakhan Corridor, and it conducts joint patrols with Tajikistan. It had offered to fund a brigade at the mouth of the Wakhan Corridor for Afghanistan, which was declined.
Current Status/Challenges:
China is worried about Uighurs, with about 5,000 returning to Afghanistan and potentially targeting Xinjiang.
The Taliban has cancelled oil exploration contracts with China in Abu Darya, which was a "biggest shock" for China.
Its alliance with Pakistan has "ended," and Pakistan is seen to have shifted its loyalties to the US.
India (Bharat)
India's approach is guided by its national security interests and strategic regional influence.
Motivations:
To increase its "weight" and "punch not below its weight," with a doctrine of "hitting inside the house" ("hum ghar mein ghus ke marange").
To enhance its national security by reconfiguring borders and controlling strategically vital areas.
To block the connection between China and Pakistan in Gilgit-Baltistan.
To secure the Siliguri Corridor and the security of the North East.
Intelligence and geopolitical appreciation:
India emphasizes looking at various signs and signals in geopolitics to anticipate possible occurrences.
Strategic acquisition of territory:
Taking Gilgit-Baltistan (GB):
wConsidered strategically important because it provides a land corridor to Central Asia, resolves the Siachen issue (reducing troop maintenance needs), and is critical for blocking CPEC.
Considering an independent Sindh state:
This would leave Pakistan as a landlocked "West Punjab" dependent on India, changing power dynamics. Karachi, though a problem, could be "sorted out" by the BLA.
Taking parts of Bangladesh:
Specifically, three eastern provinces, including the area east of the Feni River, to provide depth to the Siliguri Corridor and improve North East security.
Assertive foreign policy:
India is not shy about stating its terms in trade deals, as seen with agricultural and dairy products. It aims to become a significant regional power.
Military preparedness:
India is upgrading its long-range radars to 8000 km. It is modifying its Agni-5 missiles to be bunker-busters with increased explosive payload. India has also shown willingness to conduct strikes inside Pakistan, such as at Skardu and Noor Khan.
Russia
Russia's role is primarily to monitor and counterbalance US influence in Afghanistan and Central Asia.
Motivations:
To monitor the 14,000 Americans still based in Afghanistan and ensure their activities do not extend northwards into Central Asia, which is considered Russia's "soft underbelly".
Recognition of the Taliban:
Recognizing the Taliban allows Russia to establish an embassy and officially keep people, including its FSB and special forces, to observe US actions.
Regional Players
Pakistan:
Often depicted as a pawn, described as "Munni Bai" in the US's lap, switching alliances (like an AirBnB on eBay) for loans. It faces severe economic hardship and political turmoil, potentially leading to "Somaliaization". Its alliance with China has reportedly ended, and CPEC is failing.
Afghanistan:
Portrayed as the "sword" held by the US. It is shown to gain significant territory west of the Indus in proposed maps. The Taliban has recently cancelled oil exploration contracts with China and refused to allow a Chinese-funded brigade at the Wakhan Corridor mouth, indicating a desire to control its own territory and influence.
Iran:
Faces the prospect of significant territorial losses in the proposed new maps, with areas given to Kurdistan, Azerbaijan, and a new Shia Iraq.
Saudi Arabia:
Despite being a "staunch friend" of the US, proposed maps show significant territorial reductions, especially coastal areas in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea, and losses to Yemen, with some coastal areas potentially going to a new Shia state. However, Saudi Arabia's "Vision 2030" might involve opening up and potentially making Mecca and Medina international cities.
The fragmentation and redefinition of nation-states in the region, as discussed in the sources, could lead to significant humanitarian and economic consequences:
Humanitarian Consequences
Bloodshed and Conflict:
The redefinition of borders, particularly in areas like Pakistan, is anticipated to cause a lot of bloodshed.
Population Displacement and Refugee Crises:
The proposed redrawing of borders could lead to forced displacement of populations.
Human Rights Atrocities:
The sources highlight severe human rights abuses in certain regions, such as the atrocities against Uighurs in Xinjiang, where they are placed in "education camps" (referred to as "concentration camps" in the 50s), and there are reports of organ harvesting and the removal of uteri from child-bearing women. This situation is a major concern for China, impacting its strategic decisions related to areas like the Wakhan Corridor.
Radicalization and Instability:
The presence of "radical" elements in certain areas, particularly in Pakistan, and the potential for these groups to gain control of territories like parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and FATA (now largely controlled by Afghan elements or TTP/BLa) could further destabilize the region. This instability makes it challenging for external actors or even the local army to exert control.
Terrorism and Militancy:
Pakistan is described as having nothing running in its country "other than the terror factory".
Economic Consequences
Disruption and Failure of Economic Projects:
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), once touted as the "jewel in the crown" for China, is now described as "dead and buried" and "over". The land link to Gwadar is disrupted, raising questions about its sustainability if Balochistan becomes independent. China's investments in CPEC are seen as "drowned". Furthermore, an oil exploration contract given to China by Afghanistan was recently cancelled, adding to China's economic worries.
Economic Weakness and Dependence:
Pakistan is depicted as economically weak and "has no money". Companies like Microsoft have closed operations and shifted base from Pakistan due to a lack of resources and trained personnel for technological roles. Pakistan's reliance on loans from entities like the US, and its inability to return them due to lack of internal economic activity, underscores its economic fragility.
Strategic Economic Adjustments by Major Powers:
The US strategy, particularly the "Project of the New American Century" (PNAC), aims for global economic dominance in the 21st century, with economists like Raghuram Rajan involved in shaping the global geo-economic policy. This suggests a deliberate restructuring of global economic relations.
New Economic Opportunities/Challenges:
Gwadar and Chabahar Ports:
The sources mention the strategic importance of Gwadar and Chabahar ports, with the problem for Gwadar being the lack of fresh water. Chabahar, on the other hand, doesn't have this problem. These ports could become key for trade and connectivity, especially for Afghanistan.
Canal Projects:
The idea of a Ben-Gurion Canal from the Gulf of Aqaba right into Gaza is discussed as a future plan, potentially leading to Israel taking over parts of Sinai for its security. This would significantly impact maritime trade routes like the Suez Canal.
Indian Strategic Economic Interests:
India's potential actions, such as taking over Gilgit-Baltistan (GB), are considered for their strategic and economic benefits, like securing a land corridor to Central Asia and facilitating trade without relying on Pakistan.
Resource Control and Geopolitics:
The "pipeline-istan" concept highlights how oil and gas pipelines influence geopolitical restructuring, with the potential for new routes that bypass certain countries like Turkey. The control of areas with resources, such as the Uighur region and Gilgit-Baltistan, is a significant driver of geopolitical competition.
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