Spies, Drones, and Warehouses
The New Rules of War by Israel and Ukraine
Introduction: The Changing Face of Conflict
The common perception of modern warfare is a clash of titans—a domain dominated by billion-dollar stealth fighters, advanced battleships, and sophisticated missile defense systems.
It is a contest of high-tech, high-cost platforms. However, recent, separate military operations by Israel (Operation Rising Lion) and Ukraine (Spider's Web) are revealing a different, more surprising truth about 21st-century combat.
While both operations achieved deep penetration into heavily defended enemy territory, they showcase a critical distinction: Ukraine relied solely on small systems, whereas Israel used covert action as the key to unlock a massive conventional air assault.
This post will distill the most impactful and counter-intuitive lessons from these conflicts that Western military planners must urgently consider.
1. Billion-Dollar Defences v/s Handful of Spies
The first major takeaway is that even the most sophisticated, multi-layered, ground-based air defense systems are profoundly vulnerable. A nation can invest astronomical sums in advanced hardware, but that entire infrastructure can be compromised by a few well-placed operatives with simple, effective tools.
In the opening phase of Operation Rising Lion, likely Mossad operatives deployed deep within Iran used precision-guided weapons such as the Spike non-line-of-sight (NLOS) anti-tank guided missile for accurate strikes against key radar installations.
By using these weapons and small one-way attack drones to destroy missile transporter-erector-launchers (TELs), these covert teams effectively blinded Iran's air defense network.
This created safe corridors through Iran's formidable anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) system for the main attack force: a massive conventional air campaign of approximately 200 aircraft—including F-35Is, F-15s, and F-16Is—which systematically destroyed hundreds of targets and eliminated Iran's most senior military leaders.
This operation also provides a second, profound lesson for NATO commanders: the importance of readiness, sustainment, and adequate munition stockpiling.
Israel's ability to generate such an impressive degree of sorties against a layered defense network, without suffering a single loss, speaks volumes.
High-end platforms are only effective if they can be deployed at scale and sustained through intense conflict.
"The risk is that much like “Fortress” Singapore in 1941, the West’s greatest investments may become vulnerable or useless when confronted by a nimbler and more imaginative enemy."
This is a critical insight for Western nations. A strategy that relies too heavily on high-end defensive hardware, without accounting for the asymmetric threat posed by infiltrated ground assets and the logistical demands of high-tempo operations, is not a strength but a severe vulnerability waiting to be exploited.
2. The Humble Drone Has Evolved into a Giant-Slayer
Small combat unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) are no longer just "force multipliers" that supplement traditional military power; they have evolved into game-changing strategic assets in their own right.
When combined with skilled operators and precise intelligence, these small, often inexpensive systems unlock novel and low-risk options for missions that were previously highly dangerous and resource-intensive.
A prime example is the mission for the destruction of enemy air defenses (DEAD). This task typically requires specialized, multi-million-dollar aircraft and puts highly trained pilots in extreme peril.
As demonstrated in the opening phase of Operation Rising Lion, this can now be achieved with small drones and precision missiles, fundamentally changing the risk calculus.
Both Israel's Operation Rising Lion and Ukraine's Spider's Web operation demonstrated the unique value and operational flexibility of these small systems.
This shift effectively democratizes air power and presents a new challenge for traditional militaries that have not yet integrated these systems at scale or reimagined their operational concepts to leverage their potential fully.
3. The Real Battlefield Might Be in Your Backyard
The final lesson is perhaps the most unsettling: the asymmetric tactics employed by covert operatives in foreign territory can be turned against the West on its own soil. The same principles of using simple, pre-positioned systems to cripple high-value infrastructure are universally applicable.
This threat is not theoretical; it is a direct extension of the tactics proven effective abroad. The vulnerability lies in the very openness and logistical complexity of modern Western societies.
"In a world dominated by containerized trade, it’s all too easy to imagine the West’s enemies pre-positioning highly effective attack systems in our back yards — places as innocuous as truck stops and warehouses."
This stark warning blurs the line between a foreign military conflict and domestic security. It forces intelligence services and military planners to consider entirely new types of national vulnerabilities, where a strategic threat might not come from an incoming missile but from a modified container sitting in a commercial storage lot.
Conclusion: Are We Ready for the New Rules of War?
The lessons from Operation Rising Lion and Spider's Web are clear and urgent. They reveal a new paradigm of conflict where:
- Massive investments in high-tech defenses can be circumvented by clever, low-tech asymmetric attacks.
- Small, inexpensive drones have become strategic weapons capable of achieving effects once reserved for premier military assets.
- The battlefield is expanding, with the potential for adversaries to pre-position threats deep within Western homelands.
- Superior technology is meaningless without the readiness, sustainment, and adequate munition stockpiles required to generate decisive combat power.
These operations have rewritten the rules of modern warfare—the critical question now is, are Western nations agile and imaginative enough to adapt before it's too late?
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