5 Surprising Realities of Russia's War in Ukraine
Headlines announcing Russian attacks on Ukraine have become a grimly familiar feature of the news cycle. Yet, beneath the frequency of these reports, the fundamental nature of Russia's air war has transformed into something more complex, systematic, and alarming than most people realize.
The massive, 12-hour bombardment on September 28, 2025, which saw Russia launch 643 total projectiles against Kyiv and other regions, was a stark illustration of this dangerous new phase.
Beyond the tragic numbers lies a story of deliberate strategic adaptation. Russia is no longer just striking targets; it is waging a multi-layered campaign designed to exhaust Ukraine’s defenses, terrorize its population, and test the limits of Western resolve.
It is a war of attrition fought with cheap technology, a campaign of psychological terror waged from the sky, and a conflict that is quietly spilling over its borders. To understand this new reality, we need to look past the daily reports and examine the underlying strategy.
Here are five key realities of Russia's new air war that reveal its true, and surprising, character. Together, these realities reveal a new Russian doctrine: warfare by economic and psychological exhaustion, where victory is measured not in territory gained, but in interceptor missiles bankrupted, civilian morale shattered, and international norms eroded.
1. The Sheer Scale Is Now a Strategy of Attrition
Russia’s air strategy has pivoted to a campaign of overwhelming Ukraine with sheer volume, primarily using inexpensive, long-range drones.
Recent attacks are among the largest of the war, exemplified by the September 27-28 strike, which involved 643 total projectiles, including 595 exploding drones and decoys alongside 48 missiles, according to the Institute for the Study of War. This represents a dramatic tactical shift.
Long-range drones now account for approximately 95% of Russian airstrikes against civilian targets, a massive increase from just 30% in the autumn of 2022. The scale is staggering; in July 2025 alone, Russia launched almost 6,300 drones against Ukraine.
This strategy is enabled by the mass production of one-way-attack UAVs like the Shahed series. Often called "the poor man’s cruise missile," these drones are a cost-effective weapon of attrition.
With an estimated price tag of just $20,000 to $50,000 per unit, they allow Russia to sustain a high tempo of massive, saturating attacks designed to deplete Ukraine’s more limited and expensive air defense capabilities.
2. Half the Drones Are Fakes Designed to Bankrupt Air Defenses
One of the most counter-intuitive realities of this new air war is that a huge number of the drones filling Ukraine's skies are not weapons at all.
According to the Kyiv Dialogue monitor, "around half of the drones deployed are so-called ‘fake drones’, cheaply produced dummies without explosive devices."
This is a surprisingly effective tactic. The primary purpose of these non-explosive decoys is to "distract and wear down Ukrainian air defences," forcing them to expend finite and costly interceptor missiles on worthless targets.
Each decoy drone that draws fire helps deplete the stocks that are desperately needed to stop the actual, explosive-laden drones that follow.
This turns the air war into a form of economic warfare. The cost disparity is extreme: a sophisticated interceptor missile, such as a British-supplied ASRAAM, is estimated to cost around $225,000.
Forcing Ukraine to use one to shoot down a Shahed drone costing as little as $20,000—or, even worse, a worthless decoy—creates a punishing cost-imposition ratio of over 10-to-1 against Ukraine for every intercept, a disparity Russia is exploiting to wage a war of ledgers as much as a war of munitions.
3. This Is a War of Psychological Terror, Not Just Military Tactics
The deliberate and repeated targeting of civilian areas makes it clear that the primary aim of Russia's air war is "psychological attrition." The cynical nature of this terror campaign is exemplified by direct strikes on civilian infrastructure, including residential buildings, a kindergarten, and even the M.D. Strazhesko Institute of Cardiology in Kyiv, where a nurse and a patient were killed.
The drones themselves are instruments of terror. Their loud, slow-moving engines have earned them the nickname "flying mopeds" among Ukrainians.
This distinct, ominous sound is not an operational flaw but a feature, designed to maximize anxiety and terrorize the civilian population as the drones crawl across the night sky toward their targets.
The personal experience of this terror is profound, as described by a Kyiv resident named Inna:
"It crawled literally over our roof - a huge lawn mower sound overhead. It was very, very loud. We followed the sound that passed our house, and then after that we shrank because we realised that there was going to be an explosion."
This campaign of fear is having a devastating human impact. According to the United Nations, 6,754 civilians were killed or injured in the first half of 2025—the highest half-year figure since the beginning of the full-scale invasion—reflecting the escalating intensity of these attacks on populated areas.
4. The Sky Is a High-Stakes Laboratory for Future Warfare
The skies over Ukraine have become a real-time laboratory for the evolution of drone warfare, with both sides locked in a rapid cycle of innovation and adaptation. Russia is continuously modifying its Shahed drones to make them more effective and harder to stop.
Key Russian adaptations include:
- Stealthier: Drones are now produced with matte black designs to make them harder to spot at night. They also incorporate honeycomb internal structures, which help reduce their radar cross-section.
- Smarter: New Chinese-made antennas are being integrated to provide greater protection against Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) techniques like signal 'spoofing'.
- Deadlier: Russia is developing new warheads, including thermobaric variants and 90 kg shaped charge warheads, which are significantly larger and more destructive than the standard 50 kg warhead.
- Faster: A new jet-powered variant, the Shahed-238, has been introduced. With a cruising speed of around 520 km/h, it is nearly three times faster than the standard propeller-driven model's 180 km/h, making it much harder to intercept.
In response, Ukraine has become a world leader in countermeasures. Electronic warfare is a cornerstone of its defense, with targeted jamming signals disabling up to 60% of attacking drones on some nights.
To counter the stark cost imbalance, Ukraine is also developing cheaper solutions, such as its own domestically produced interceptor drones, which are already being used successfully.
5. The Conflict Is Already Leaking Across Borders
This intensified air war is not contained within Ukraine's borders; it is actively testing the readiness and red lines of its neighbors.
The massive Russian attack on September 28th prompted a direct military response from Poland, which scrambled its fighter jets and temporarily closed airspace near its southeastern cities as a defensive measure. This is part of a pattern of Russian airspace violations that have put NATO on high alert.
More alarmingly, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has made an explosive claim based on intelligence reports, accusing Russia of using its sanctions-evading 'shadow fleet' of oil tankers for military purposes.
Zelenskyy asserted that these tankers are being used to "launch and control" Russian drones over European cities.
If confirmed, this would represent a dangerous and clandestine expansion of the conflict. This potential use of commercial vessels as quasi-military platforms represents a deliberate effort to create a new, deniable gray zone of conflict, challenging the fundamental distinction between civilian and military domains.
Conclusion: Red Lines in a Drone-Filled Sky
Russia's transformed air war against Ukraine is far more than a series of random attacks. It is a calculated, multi-faceted strategy of technological escalation, economic attrition, and psychological terror. By leveraging massive numbers of low-cost drones—many of them decoys—Russia aims to bankrupt Ukraine's air defenses while simultaneously demoralizing its people and testing the boundaries of the international community.
This evolving conflict forces us to confront uncomfortable new questions. As the skies become a testing ground for the future of warfare, how can the world adapt to a reality where low-cost drones can terrorize nations? And where are the new red lines drawn when a conflict quietly bleeds across borders, turning civilian vessels into weapons of war?
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